Project-IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH (1985-2015)

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background to the Study

The exchange rate is perhaps one of the most widely discussed topic in Nigeria today. This is not surprising given its macro-economic importance especially in a highly import dependent economy as Nigeria (Adedeji, 2014). Macroeconomic policy formulation is a process by which the agencies responsible for the conduct of economic policies manipulate a set of instrumental variables in order to achieve some desire objectives.

In Nigeria these objectives include achievements of domestic price stability, balance of payment equilibrium, efficiency, equitable distribution of income and economic growth and development. Economic growth refers to the continuous increase in a country’s national income or the total volume of goods and services, a good indicator of economic growth is the increase in Gross National Product (GNP) over a long period of time. Economic development on the overhead implies both structural and functional transformation of all the economic indexes from a low to a high state (Aliyu, 2011, Udoka, 2017).  ) one of the macro “economic variables of importance is the exchange rate policy country.

Exchange rate policy involves choosing where foreign transaction will take place (Obadan, 2013). Exchange rate policy is therefore a component of macroeconomic management policies the monetary authorities in any given economy uses to achieve internal balance in medium run. Specifically internal balance mean the level of economic activity that is consistent with the satisfactory control of inflation. On the contrary, external or sustainable current account deficit financed on lasting basis expected capital inflow.

It is important to know that economic objectives are usually the main consideration in determining the exchange control. For instance from 1982 “ 1983, the Nigerian currency was pegged to the British pound sterling on a 1.1 ration. Before then, the Nigerian naira has been devalued by 10%. Apart from this policy measures discussed above, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) applied the basket of currencies approach from 1979 as the guide in determining the exchange rate was determined by the relative strength of the currencies of the country’s trading partner and the volume of trade with such countries. Specifically weights were attached to these countries with the American dollars and British pound sterling on the exchange rate mechanism (Ojo, 2016).). One of the objectives of the various macro “ economic policies adopted under the structural adjustment programme (SPA) in July, 1986 was to establish a realistic and sustainable exchange rate for the naira, this policy was recommended in 1986 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On exchange mechanism and was adopted in 1986.

The key element of structural adjustment programme (SAP) was the free market determination of the naira exchange rate through an auction system. This was the beginning of the unstable exchange rate; the government had to establish the foreign exchange market (FEM) to stabilize the exchange rate depending on the state of balance of payments, the rate of inflation, Domestic liquidity and employment. Between 1986 and 2003, the federal Government experimented with different exchange rate policies without allowing any of them to make a remarkable impact in the economy before it was changed. This inconsistency in policies and lack of continuity in exchange rate policies aggregated unstable nature of the naira rate (Gbosi, 2014).

1.2       Statement of the Problem

The exchange rate of the naira was relatively stable between 1973 and 1979 during the oil boomer (regulatory require). This was also the situation prior to 1990 when agricultural products accounted for more than 70% of the nation’s gross domestic products (GDP) (Ewa, 2011).

However, as a result of the development in the petroleum oil sector, in 1970’s the share of agriculture in total exports declined significantly while that of oil increased. However, from 1981 the world oil market started to deteriorate and with it is economic crises emerged in Nigeria because of the country’s dependence on oil sales for her export earnings. To underline the importance of oil export to Nigerian economy, the gross national product (GNP) fell from $76 billion in 1980 to $40 billion in 1996, a number of economic growth became negative as result of the adoption of structural adjustment programme (SAP).

This major problem which this study is designed to solve is whether the exchange rate has any bearing on Nigerians economic growth an d development. While some Economist dispute the ability of change in the real exchange rate to improve the trade balance of developing countries (Hinkle, 2009) because of elasticity of their low export, others believe that structural policies could however change the long-term trends in the terms of trade and the prospects for export led growth. Instabilities of the foreign exchange rate is also a problem to the economy.

1.3 Objective of the Study

The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on Nigeria economic growth.

The specific objectives are as follows:

1. To ascertain the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria.
2. To determine the impact of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria.
3. To investigate the role of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria.

 1.4       Research Questions

The following research questions were suggested for the study:

1. What is the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria?
2. To what extent will financial development affect economic growth in Nigeria?
3. What is the role of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria.

1.5       Research Hypothesis

Based on the objectives of the study, the following hypotheses were formed:

1. Ho: There is no significant effect of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria.

Hi:      There is significant effect of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria.

1. Ho: There is no significant effect of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria.

Hi:      There is significant effect of financial development economic growth in Nigeria.

1. Ho: There is no significant effect of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria.

Hi:      There is no significant effect of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria.

1.6       Significance of the Study

The significance of this research work lies on the fact that if the cause of the unstable exchange rate of the naira is identified and corrected, the economy will rapidly grow and develop into an advance one. This is so because if the unstable exchange rate of naira is proved to be affecting the macro- economy major variables badly, including Real exchange rate, Real interest rate, inflation rate, gross domestic product and trade openness of the country, attempts should be made to stabilize the exchange rate. This is because these variables are gauge for the measurement of growth and development of any economy.

Importantly, this study would help the government and the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) to identify the strength and weakness of each foreign exchange system and hence adopt the policy that suits the economy best. This will definitely enhance growth and development of the economy, the study will also serve as a guide to future researchers on this subject.

1.7       Scope of the Study

The research examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on Nigeria economic growth. This research work is designed to cover the period 1980-2009 a period of thirty years. The scope consist of the regulatory and deregulatory exchange rate period i.e. the fixed exchange rate and the floating exchange rate period. The study is based on core macro- economic performance of Nigeria between 1980-2010 more so, it rests on core economic growth and development in Nigeria for the period of thirty-one years.

The study is structured to evaluate the Nigeria exchange rate as the pilot of economy growth and development. The study is therefore limited to the core economic growth in Nigeria and not the socio- political factors of the foreign exchange rate.

Definition of Terms

Nigeria Exchange Rate: This is the Price for which the currency of a country can be exchanged for another country’s currency.

Economy: Economy is the state of a country or region in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services and the supply of money.

Economic growth: Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another.

Economic Development: Economic development can be defined as efforts that seek to improve the economic well-being and quality of life for a community by creating and/or retaining jobs and supporting or growing incomes and the tax base.

Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuations are a natural outcome of the floating exchange rate system that is the norm for most major economies. The exchange rate of one currency versus the other is influenced by numerous fundamental and technical factors.

Price stability: Price stability is a significant objective of monetary policy. When inflation is high, variable or both, it interferes with the efficient operation of the economy and can reduce economic growth.

Price Level: A price level is the average of current prices across the entire spectrum of goods and services produced in the economy. In a more general sense, price level refers to any static picture of the price of a given good, service or tradable security.

REFERENCES

Adedeji, L. O. (2014). Global Business and International Finance (Revised Ed.). Osogbo- Nigeria: Prudent Associates

Aliyu, S.R.U. (2011). Impact of oil shock and exchange rate volatility in economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Research Journal of Interaction Studies, 4(11), 7-9.

Ayinde, T. O. (2014). The Impact of exchange rate Volatility on Manufacturing performance: new evidence from Nigeria. Fountain Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(2), 83-92.

Aliyu, G. (2011). Expectation and Exchange Rate Dynamic. Journal of Political Economy,7(11), 5-13.

Ewa, G.  (2011). Exchange Rate Management and Nation’s  Development: An Empirical Evidence. Journal of International Economics, 4(12), 23-42.

Obadan, M. (2013).  Challenges of exchange rate volatility in economic Management of Nigeria in the Dynamic of Exchange rate in Nigeria. Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(7), 12-23.

Gbosi, H. (2014). Exchange Rate and organizational Productivity. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2(11), 6-9.

Ojo, O. (2016). Real Exchange Rate and Economic Development. Journal of Management and Finance, 5(6), 1-12.

Olisadebe, E.U. (1997). Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policy Measure in Nigeria. CBN Economic and Financial Review, 29(2), 7-9.

Udoka, U. (2017).  Problems with Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Manufacturig Productivity in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(12), 5-9.

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