Full Project – Trend Analysis of Malaria Prevalence in Nigeria

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1  Background to the Study

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country accounting for approximately 25% of global malaria cases (World Health Organization, 2019). The prevalence of malaria in Nigeria has been a subject of extensive research, with studies indicating a fluctuating trend over the years. A study by Oyebola et al. (2018) revealed a decline in malaria prevalence from 42% in 2010 to 27% in 2015. This decrease was attributed to the increased use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and improved access to effective malaria treatment.

However, despite the noted decline, malaria prevalence remains high in certain regions. A study by Okorie et al. (2020) highlighted the persistent high prevalence of malaria in the North-East and South-South regions of Nigeria. The study attributed this to several factors, including inadequate access to healthcare facilities, poor implementation of malaria control measures, and socio-economic factors. The study further emphasized the need for targeted interventions in these regions to reduce malaria prevalence.

The role of climate change in the prevalence of malaria in Nigeria has also been explored. A study by Eze et al. (2018) indicated a positive correlation between climate change and malaria prevalence. The study noted that increased temperatures and rainfall patterns have created conducive environments for the breeding of Anopheles mosquitoes, the primary vectors of malaria. This suggests that climate change could potentially exacerbate malaria prevalence in Nigeria if not adequately addressed.

The impact of government policies and interventions on malaria prevalence has also been a subject of research. A study by Onwujekwe et al. (2019) indicated that government interventions such as the distribution of ITNs and the implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) have significantly reduced malaria prevalence. However, the study noted that these interventions are not evenly distributed across the country, leading to disparities in malaria prevalence.

The trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Nigeria reveals a complex interplay of factors, including climate change, government interventions, and socio-economic factors. While significant strides have been made in reducing malaria prevalence, there is a need for targeted interventions in high prevalence regions and a comprehensive approach to address the impact of climate change on malaria prevalence.

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Malaria continues to be a significant health problem in Nigeria, despite numerous interventions and strategies aimed at reducing its prevalence. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Nigeria accounts for 25% of malaria cases worldwide, with an estimated 100 million cases and over 300,000 deaths annually (WHO, 2019). This alarming rate of prevalence poses a significant challenge to the country’s health system and socio-economic development.

The high prevalence of malaria in Nigeria is attributed to several factors. These include the country’s favorable climatic conditions for the breeding of Anopheles mosquitoes, the primary vectors of malaria, and the lack of effective vector control strategies (NMEP, 2016). Additionally, socio-economic factors such as poverty, poor sanitation, and inadequate access to healthcare services contribute to the high incidence of the disease (Onwujekwe et al., 2015).

Despite the implementation of various malaria control strategies, such as the distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), the disease remains endemic in Nigeria (NMEP, 2016). This suggests that these strategies may not be as effective as anticipated, or there may be issues with their implementation and uptake.

Furthermore, there is a lack of comprehensive and up-to-date data on the trend of malaria prevalence in Nigeria. Most of the available data are either outdated or do not cover all regions of the country (NMEP, 2016). This makes it difficult to accurately assess the current situation and to plan and implement effective interventions.

Moreover, there is a need for more research on the factors contributing to the high prevalence of malaria in Nigeria. While several studies have identified potential factors, there is a lack of consensus on their relative importance and interplay. This makes it difficult to develop targeted interventions that address the specific needs of different regions and populations (Onwujekwe et al., 2015).

The high prevalence of malaria in Nigeria is a complex issue that requires a multifaceted approach. There is a need for more comprehensive data, further research on contributing factors, and a critical evaluation of current control strategies. Addressing these issues will be crucial in reducing the burden of malaria in Nigeria.

1.3. Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of the study is to examine Trend Analysis of Malaria Prevalence in Nigeria. The specific objectives are:

1. To analyze the trend of malaria prevalence in Nigeria over the past decade.
2. To identify the factors contributing to the prevalence of malaria in Nigeria.
3. To assess the effectiveness of current malaria control measures in Nigeria.
4. To determine the demographic groups most affected by malaria in Nigeria.

1.4. Research Questions

The research questions are buttressed below:

1. What has been the trend of malaria prevalence in Nigeria over the past decade?
2. What are the factors contributing to the prevalence of malaria in Nigeria?
3. How effective are the current malaria control measures in Nigeria?
4. Which demographic groups are most affected by malaria in Nigeria?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The study of the trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Nigeria holds significant importance for several reasons. Firstly, it provides a comprehensive overview of the malaria situation in the country over the past decade. This information is crucial for health officials, policymakers, and researchers to understand the extent of the problem and the progress made so far in combating this disease.

Secondly, the study identifies the demographic groups most affected by malaria. This information can help in the design and implementation of targeted interventions. For instance, if children under five years are found to be the most affected, then interventions can be designed to focus on this group, such as the distribution of insecticide-treated nets and antimalarial drugs.

Thirdly, the study assesses the effectiveness of current malaria control measures. This is important in determining whether the current strategies are working or if there is a need for a change in approach. If the current measures are found to be ineffective, then it would necessitate the need for new strategies and interventions.

Fourthly, the study identifies the factors contributing to the prevalence of malaria. This information is vital in the design of effective malaria control strategies. For example, if poor sanitation and lack of access to healthcare are found to be significant contributors, then interventions can be designed to address these issues.

Fifthly, the findings of this study can be used to inform policy decisions and resource allocation. If malaria prevalence is found to be high in certain regions, then more resources can be allocated to these areas. Similarly, if certain interventions are found to be effective, then more funding can be directed towards these interventions.

Lastly, the study contributes to the existing body of knowledge on malaria prevalence in Nigeria. It adds to the literature by providing up-to-date and comprehensive data on the malaria situation in the country. This can be useful for future research and for international comparisons.

1.6.  Scope of the Study

The study examines Trend Analysis of Malaria Prevalence in Nigeria. The study is restricted to pregnant women attending the antenatal clinic in the department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology of UMTH.

1.7. Operational Definition of Terms

Trend Analysis: This is a statistical technique that uses time series data to identify consistent patterns or trends. It’s often used to forecast future points in the trend line, which can be beneficial in various fields such as business planning, health studies, and environmental research.

Malaria: Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by parasites that are transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. It is preventable and curable, and it primarily affects tropical and subtropical regions, including parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The World Health Organization estimates that there were 229 million cases of malaria worldwide in 2019.

Prevalence: In epidemiology, prevalence refers to the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition (typically a disease or a risk factor such as smoking or seat-belt use). It is arrived at by comparing the number of people found to have the condition with the total number of people studied and is often expressed as a fraction, as a percentage, or as the number of cases per 10,000 or 100,000 people.

Full Project – Trend Analysis of Malaria Prevalence in Nigeria