Project – POPULATION INCREASE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. A STUDY OF AGEGE LOCAL GOVERNMENT LCDA.
ABSTRACT
Over time there has been mixed and controversial evidence in the literature regarding the Population increase and its implications on national development with focus on Agege local government LCDA. This study is an empirical analysis of national development and Population increase in Nigeria, some writers have found a positive relationship between the two variables, others noticed a negative relationship, and some examined little to no correlation between the two variables. The purpose of this research paper is to observe and analyse the effect of Population increase on national development , examine whether our findings using the OLS method and our regression model holds and suggests probable and effective policy recommendations to help control over population in Nigeria. The secondary data was obtained from the world bank and the National Bureau of Statistics making use of the E-views programme to carry out our research. the granger causality test was also conducted and the result shows that RGDP does granger cause Population increase in Nigeria, based on the statistic of this result as well as the results of our other regression models, government is advised to employ these measures so as to not only catalyse national development and control Population increase and ensure equitable redistribution of public resources
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background Of The Study
Over the years, it has become evident that human capital is a vital component in driving growth and development. This is because the productivity required to stimulate national development can only be achieved in the presence of human capital. In this regard, a growing population could be perceived as a blessing; especially if the demographic composition consists of youths who are active participants in economic activity. However, when Population increase outperforms growth, the effects can be unfavorable; especially for per capita income (Handbook of National development; O. Galore 2005).
Population increase, also known as population growth, is a subject that has been extensively studied due to its significant implications on national development. According to the World Bank (2019), population growth can have both positive and negative impacts on a country’s development. On the positive side, a larger population can mean a larger labor force, which can potentially lead to increased productivity and economic growth. On the negative side, rapid population growth can put pressure on a country’s resources and infrastructure, leading to challenges in areas such as education, healthcare, and housing.
The relationship between population growth and economic development is complex and multifaceted. Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla (2003) argue that the impact of population growth on economic development depends on the age structure of the population. They suggest that countries with a high proportion of working-age individuals can experience a “demographic dividend,” where economic growth is boosted by a large labor force and relatively few dependents. However, this dividend is not automatic and depends on factors such as investment in human capital and the creation of productive employment opportunities.
In contrast, some studies have highlighted the potential negative impacts of rapid population growth. A report by the United Nations (2015) suggests that rapid population growth can exacerbate poverty and inequality, particularly in low-income countries. The report argues that rapid population growth can strain public services and infrastructure, leading to inadequate access to education, healthcare, and housing. This can, in turn, hinder economic development and exacerbate social inequalities.
However, it’s important to note that the impact of population growth on national development is not solely negative. A study by Kelley and Schmidt (1995) found that population growth can stimulate technological innovation and economic growth. They argue that a larger population can lead to increased demand for goods and services, which can stimulate economic activity and encourage technological innovation. However, they also note that this positive effect is not automatic and depends on factors such as the quality of governance and the level of economic freedom.
The implications of population growth for national development are also influenced by factors such as urbanization and migration. A report by the World Bank (2016) suggests that urbanization can be a powerful driver of economic development, as cities can offer economies of scale and agglomeration benefits. However, rapid urbanization can also lead to challenges such as congestion, pollution, and inadequate infrastructure. Similarly, migration can have both positive and negative impacts on national development, depending on factors such as the skills of migrants and the capacity of destination areas to absorb and integrate them.
A rapid growth in population can lower per capita incomes through three key channels. Firstly, it increases the pressure of the population on natural resources; especially land. Secondly, it can lead to a scarcity of goods and services which often leads to an increase in price (consumption cost). Finally, it leads to a decline in capital accumulation and savings because the larger a family, the higher their expenses, and the lower their propensity to save (world population review, 2019). Population increase also negatively impacts poverty and inequality, education, employment health, food, migration, and the environment; all of which feeds into national development. Other aspects of population asides from numbers that influence economic outcomes for individuals and society as a whole include age, geographic, and social mobility.
Nigeria, popularly referred to as the “Giant of Africa” (WHO, 2006) has one of the largest and fastest-growing populations in the African continent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (2016), Nigeria accounts for about half of West Africa’s population with an estimated 202 million people. At around 2012 a large proportion of Nigeria’s population consists of youths which made up around 42.54% of the entire population. The rapid Population increase in Nigeria has had severe consequences on the nation’s development. The most profound being unemployment, endemic poverty, high levels of inequality, and insecurity issues.
This study explores the interactions between Population increase and other economic variables such as unemployment, savings, interest, and inflation affect national development . So, in this study, our focus is on Nigeria’s Population increase rate over the years, with an emphasis on the causes and consequences of a burgeoning Population increase.
1.2 Statement of Problem
Overall, Nigeria’s current economic situation is not promising (World Bank, 2020). The economic recession period which occurred in 2014, due to diminishing commodity prices retarded national development and has severely negatively affected living standards (world bank, 2008). While the Nigerian government has consistently implemented economic and social policies, that are directed at improving the social welfare of individuals which will serve as a catalyst for economic activities, all their efforts have been rendered ineffective by the rapidly growing population and limited resources. According to the world bank 2008, Unemployment rates have been increasing, insecurity particularly in the north is dire, infrastructure is dilapidating, disposable incomes are falling as prices remain volatile. If the current population trend persists in the coming years, Nigeria faces a real problem.
In the past, Nigeria has made modest attempts to try and reduce Population increase. The first population policy in Nigeria was created in 1988. The goal of the policy was to reduce the number of children a couple would have to 4 by 1995. However, the policy failed to achieve its goals which included decreasing the fertility rate, reducing the level of early marriages which will reduce the Population increase rate. In 2005, Nigeria put forward another population policy called “The National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development (NPP)”, which was aimed at increasing the standard of living and providing quality livelihood for the citizens of Nigeria but also failed due to a fraud, lack of policy commitment and political will. (Ministry of National Planning, Nigeria).
1.3 Objective Of The Study
This study aims to examine the effect of Population increase on National development. The specific objectives of the study are to:
- Determine the effect of Population increase rate on National development.
- Investigate the effect of fertility rate on National development.
- Identify the effect of mortality rate on National development.
1.4 Research Questions
- How does the rate of population increase impact national development?
- What is the effect of the fertility rate on national development?
- How does the mortality rate influence national development?
1.5. Research Hypothesis
Hypotheses to be tested in this study are stated below in their null forms:
H01: There is no relationship between Population increase rate and national development.
H02: There is no causal relationship between Population increase and national development.
1.6 Significance of The Study
This study is relevant as it aims to improve and understand the relationship that exists between national development and Population increase in Nigeria.
This study will also be essential for policymakers to grasp the potential consequences of a rapidly growing population on the environment and enable them to formulate more constructive demographic policies that will tackle the problem of population encompassing national development rate.
1.7 Scope of The Study
This study covers the Population increase and its implications on national development. A study of Agege local government LCDA. The study covers the period of thirty-four years (34) from 1986 to 2019.
1.8 Limitation Of The Study
Like in every human endeavour, the researcher encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. Insufficient funds tend to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection, which is why the researcher resorted to a limited choice of sample size. More so, the researcher simultaneously engaged in this study with other academic work. As a result, the amount of time spent on research will be reduced.
1.9. Definition of terms
Trends: a pattern of gradual change in a process, output, or condition.
Human capital: this is seen as a measure of talents, knowledge, education, and attributes of labor that shows the economic significance of a worker.
Capital accumulation: this has to do with all the efforts put in investing money with the main aim of increasing one’s initial monetary outlay.
Population: is the total amount of people living in a particular geographical area.
National development: National development is the capacity of the country to raise the standard of living of its residents. It can be achieved by providing individuals with basic livelihood requirements and supplying them with employment, etc. Development is a process that creates growth, brings in progress and positive change.
Fertility rate: is the total number of live births per women (per 1000 women.
1.10 Organization Of The Study
This research work is organized in five chapters, for easy understanding, as follows Chapter one is concern with the introduction, which consist of the (overview, of the study), statement of problem, objectives of the study, research question, significance or the study, definition of terms etc. Chapter two highlight the theoretical framework on which the study is based, thus the review of related literature. Chapter three deals on the research design and methodology adopted in the study. Chapter four concentrate on the data collection and analysis and presentation of finding. Chapter five gives summary, conclusion, and recommendations made of the study.