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Full Project – THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NIGERIA

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Of The Study

Over the years, it has become evident that human capital is a vital component in driving growth and development. This is because the productivity required to stimulate economic growth can only be achieved in the presence of human capital. In this regard, a growing population could be perceived as a blessing; especially if the demographic composition consists of youths who are active participants in economic activity. However, when population growth outperforms growth, the effects can be unfavorable; especially for per capita income (Handbook of Economic growth; O. Galore 2005).

A rapid growth in population can lower per capita incomes through three key channels. Firstly, it increases the pressure of the population on natural resources; especially land. Secondly, it can lead to a scarcity of goods and services which often leads to an increase in price (consumption cost). Finally, it leads to a decline in capital accumulation and savings because the larger a family, the higher their expenses, and the lower their propensity to save (world population review, 2019). Population growth also negatively impacts poverty and inequality, education, employment health, food, migration, and the environment; all of which feeds into economic growth. Other aspects of population asides from numbers that influence economic outcomes for individuals and society as a whole include age, geographic, and social mobility.

Nigeria, popularly referred to as the “Giant of Africa” (WHO, 2006) has one of the largest and fastest-growing populations in the African continent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (2016), Nigeria accounts for about half of West Africa’s population with an estimated 202 million people. At around 2012 a large proportion of Nigeria’s population consists of youths which made up around 42.54% of the entire population. The rapid population growth in Nigeria has had severe consequences on the nation’s development. The most profound being unemployment, endemic poverty, high levels of inequality, and insecurity issues.

This study explores the interactions between population growth and other economic variables such as unemployment, savings, interest, and inflation affect economic growth in Nigeria. So, in this study, our focus is on Nigeria’s population growth rate over the years, with an emphasis on the causes and consequences of a burgeoning population growth.

1.2 Statement of Problem

Overall, Nigeria’s current economic situation is not promising (World Bank, 2020). The economic recession period which occurred in 2014, due to diminishing commodity prices retarded economic growth and has severely negatively affected living standards (world bank, 2008). While the Nigerian government has consistently implemented economic and social policies, that are directed at improving the social welfare of individuals which will serve as a catalyst for economic activities, all their efforts have been rendered ineffective by the rapidly growing population and limited resources. According to the world bank 2008, Unemployment rates have been increasing, insecurity particularly in the north is dire, infrastructure is dilapidating, disposable incomes are falling as prices remain volatile. If the current population trend persists in the coming years, Nigeria faces a real problem.

In the past, Nigeria has made modest attempts to try and reduce population growth. The first population policy in Nigeria was created in 1988. The goal of the policy was to reduce the number of children a couple would have to 4 by 1995. However, the policy failed to achieve its goals which included decreasing the fertility rate, reducing the level of early marriages which will reduce the population growth rate. In 2005, Nigeria put forward another population policy called “The National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development (NPP)”, which was aimed at increasing the standard of living and providing quality livelihood for the citizens of Nigeria but also failed due to a fraud, lack of policy commitment and political will. (Ministry of National Planning, Nigeria).

1.3 Objective Of The Study

This study aims to examine the effect of population growth on Nigeria’s economic growth and development. The specific objectives of the study are to:

Determine the effect of population growth rate on Nigeria’s economic growth and development.
Investigate the effect of fertility rate on Nigeria’s economic growth and development.
Identify the effect of mortality rate on Nigeria’s economic growth and development.

1.4 Research Questions

What is the relationship between population growth rate and economic growth in Nigeria?
Is there a causal relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria?

1.5. Research Hypothesis

Hypotheses to be tested in this study are stated below in their null forms:

H01: There is no relationship between population growth rate and economic growth in Nigeria.

H02: There is no causal relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria.

1.6 Significance Of The Study

This study is relevant as it aims to improve and understand the relationship that exists between economic growth and population growth in Nigeria.

This study will also be essential for policymakers to grasp the potential consequences of a rapidly growing population on the environment and enable them to formulate more constructive demographic policies that will tackle the problem of population encompassing economic growth rate.

1.7 Scope Of The Study

This study covers the impact of population growth on the economic development of Nigeria. The study covers the period of thirty-four years (34) from 1986 to 2019.

1.8 Limitation Of The Study

Like in every human endeavour, the researcher encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. Insufficient funds tend to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection, which is why the researcher resorted to a limited choice of sample size. More so, the researcher simultaneously engaged in this study with other academic work. As a result, the amount of time spent on research will be reduced.

1.9. Definition of terms

Trends: a pattern of gradual change in a process, output, or condition.

Human capital: this is seen as a measure of talents, knowledge, education, and attributes of labor that shows the economic significance of a worker.

Capital accumulation: this has to do with all the efforts put in investing money with the main aim of increasing one’s initial monetary outlay.

Population: is the total amount of people living in a particular geographical area.

Economic growth: this is the increase in the manufacturing of goods and services over a specific period.

Fertility rate: is the total number of live births per women (per 1000 women.

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